[Gta04-owner] Invitation to indicate interest in next batch of GTA04A5 boards

[Dr. H. Nikolaus Schaller]

Am 26.03.2013 um 14:18 schrieb Bob Ham:

> On 2013-03-26 10:22, Dr. H. Nikolaus Schaller wrote:
> 
>> If you have ideas how to stimulate demand, please do!
> 
> Unfortunately, I think it might be the case that this is not possible.  The evidence seems to suggest that production of new GTA04 revisions is not economically feasible.
> 
> 
> As I understand it, the GTA04 was born of the ideas floating around the community surrounding the Openmoko phones: to have a higher spec motherboard with 3G and an array of sensors.  Frankly, I think this idea has run its course.  I believe those remaining users who were prepared to pay a premium for such an upgrade have already made their purchases.

Yes, this is most likely the case.

> 
> There may be a lower volume of continued sales but I doubt this will increase until the machine is proven.  By "proven", I mean two things: (1) shown to have reliable software, and (2) having cases readily available.
> 
> (1) At present, caveats are still abundant in the software; for example, lack of support for GTA01 batteries, the ongoing battles with power use during suspend, and also the seemingly continuous problems with the sound infrastructure in QtMoko.  When these have all been ironed out and it becomes widely known that the OS is solid and usable, the GTA04 will start to become more appealing.
> 
> (2) There is no ready availability of cases for the GTA04.  You cannot go to a web page, click "Add to basket", put in your credit card details, and have a complete case delivered to you.  Until users can do that, there is a big barrier to GTA04 adoption.  At present, the GTA04 is bound to an ad-hoc market of second hand goods.  Not only is this unreliable, I believe there is a significant psychological difference between (a) buying a new 3D printed case with case kit, and (b) buying a second-hand GTA01/GTA02 case.  One is appealing and the other isn't.  The case kit in the Golden Delicious web shop is not yet available.  When it is, and there are links to a Shapeways order page for a complete 3D printed case, then the GTA04 will start to become more appealing.
> 
> I note that the GTA04A5 revision has changes to specifically enable sales of a case kit.  If Golden Delicious cannot meet the one-off costs to produce this new revision, it may be that demand for the GTA04 never increases.
> 
> 
> I hope that the one-off costs for the GTA04A5 are met, case kits are sold, the software problems are all solved, and the GTA04 gains a reputation as a solid platform and then becomes more widespread and popular (read: profitable).  Looking at future efforts, however, I think the most feasible long-term strategy is to produce a low cost, complete phone.
> 
> There seem to be two problems, noted a number of times, that preclude appeal of the GTA04 to a wider market: the high cost and the dependence on a GTA01/GTA02 case.
> 
> I believe the high cost can only be dealt with by designing a new machine with more modest specifications; a "feature phone".  The main feature of the GTA04 is actually its freedom, not technical capabilities.  I'm sure there are many free software supporters who would be happy with a phone with which they can just make phone calls, send SMSs and browse the Web, that is reasonably priced, rather than a phone with lots of extra sensors and additional functionality, that is expensive.  It may be that a new design is the only way to deliver this.

Unfortunately it is not the extra sensors and the additional functionality that makes it expensive. They make less than 20% of the total cost. The most expensive parts are (ordered by falling cost): UMTS modem, CPU+Memory, LCD, PCB, WLAN, GPS. But the highest cost are those from low volume production.

> 
> In addition to the issues discussed above, the dependence on a GTA01/GTA02 case also has a big impact on the marketing that I think is important.  The GTA04 *product* offered by Golden Delicious has always been a phone motherboard.  Complete phones have been offered but the literature for the GTA04 always describes it as a motherboard replacement.  The idea of buying a motherboard is very different from the idea of buying a complete phone.  I think it is not a good idea to market just a motherboard if you seek wide enough appeal to be economically feasible.  I think marketing a complete phone comprised of a motherboard in a 3D printed case would be much more successful.
> 
> It's worth noting as well that the usability of the phone software seems, at least in my experience, to have a massive impact on the phone's appeal, *even if the market is hackers and technical users*.  I believe that for any phone to be marketed successfully, it must have usable software from the start.
> 
> 
> The GTA04 has come a long way and achieved a great deal.  This is not the most glowing or optimistic response but I think it's important to be realistic and address the problems that prevent the project moving forward.  And maybe even acknowledging that it might not be possible to move forward.

Yes. This is why I did describe the situation openly and why I think we have to put it on hold. Or to write it from an optimistic angle of view: have to wait for better times to really start the GTA04A5 :)

-- hns