[Gta04-owner] Invitation to indicate interest in next batch of GTA04A5 boards

[Bob Ham]

On 2013-03-26 10:22, Dr. H. Nikolaus Schaller wrote:

> If you have ideas how to stimulate demand, please do!

Unfortunately, I think it might be the case that this is not possible.  
The evidence seems to suggest that production of new GTA04 revisions is 
not economically feasible.


As I understand it, the GTA04 was born of the ideas floating around the 
community surrounding the Openmoko phones: to have a higher spec 
motherboard with 3G and an array of sensors.  Frankly, I think this idea 
has run its course.  I believe those remaining users who were prepared 
to pay a premium for such an upgrade have already made their purchases.

There may be a lower volume of continued sales but I doubt this will 
increase until the machine is proven.  By "proven", I mean two things: 
(1) shown to have reliable software, and (2) having cases readily 
available.

(1) At present, caveats are still abundant in the software; for 
example, lack of support for GTA01 batteries, the ongoing battles with 
power use during suspend, and also the seemingly continuous problems 
with the sound infrastructure in QtMoko.  When these have all been 
ironed out and it becomes widely known that the OS is solid and usable, 
the GTA04 will start to become more appealing.

(2) There is no ready availability of cases for the GTA04.  You cannot 
go to a web page, click "Add to basket", put in your credit card 
details, and have a complete case delivered to you.  Until users can do 
that, there is a big barrier to GTA04 adoption.  At present, the GTA04 
is bound to an ad-hoc market of second hand goods.  Not only is this 
unreliable, I believe there is a significant psychological difference 
between (a) buying a new 3D printed case with case kit, and (b) buying a 
second-hand GTA01/GTA02 case.  One is appealing and the other isn't.  
The case kit in the Golden Delicious web shop is not yet available.  
When it is, and there are links to a Shapeways order page for a complete 
3D printed case, then the GTA04 will start to become more appealing.

I note that the GTA04A5 revision has changes to specifically enable 
sales of a case kit.  If Golden Delicious cannot meet the one-off costs 
to produce this new revision, it may be that demand for the GTA04 never 
increases.


I hope that the one-off costs for the GTA04A5 are met, case kits are 
sold, the software problems are all solved, and the GTA04 gains a 
reputation as a solid platform and then becomes more widespread and 
popular (read: profitable).  Looking at future efforts, however, I think 
the most feasible long-term strategy is to produce a low cost, complete 
phone.

There seem to be two problems, noted a number of times, that preclude 
appeal of the GTA04 to a wider market: the high cost and the dependence 
on a GTA01/GTA02 case.

I believe the high cost can only be dealt with by designing a new 
machine with more modest specifications; a "feature phone".  The main 
feature of the GTA04 is actually its freedom, not technical 
capabilities.  I'm sure there are many free software supporters who 
would be happy with a phone with which they can just make phone calls, 
send SMSs and browse the Web, that is reasonably priced, rather than a 
phone with lots of extra sensors and additional functionality, that is 
expensive.  It may be that a new design is the only way to deliver this.

In addition to the issues discussed above, the dependence on a 
GTA01/GTA02 case also has a big impact on the marketing that I think is 
important.  The GTA04 *product* offered by Golden Delicious has always 
been a phone motherboard.  Complete phones have been offered but the 
literature for the GTA04 always describes it as a motherboard 
replacement.  The idea of buying a motherboard is very different from 
the idea of buying a complete phone.  I think it is not a good idea to 
market just a motherboard if you seek wide enough appeal to be 
economically feasible.  I think marketing a complete phone comprised of 
a motherboard in a 3D printed case would be much more successful.

It's worth noting as well that the usability of the phone software 
seems, at least in my experience, to have a massive impact on the 
phone's appeal, *even if the market is hackers and technical users*.  I 
believe that for any phone to be marketed successfully, it must have 
usable software from the start.


The GTA04 has come a long way and achieved a great deal.  This is not 
the most glowing or optimistic response but I think it's important to be 
realistic and address the problems that prevent the project moving 
forward.  And maybe even acknowledging that it might not be possible to 
move forward.

Bob

-- 
Bob Ham <rah at settrans.net>

for (;;) { ++pancakes; }