[Gta04-owner] Status GTA04 GroupTour

[Bob Ham]

On Thu, 2011-12-29 at 11:50 +0100, Dr. H. Nikolaus Schaller wrote:

> * but still only 16% preorders (56 units)

> If I read that over 2 Million new Android units have been
> activated over the Christmas holidays [1] and 4 Million
> iOS devices just on Christmas day [2], I can't believe
> that we do not find 350 potential buyers in 60 days...


The group tour has already surpassed both iOS and Android put together..

World population¹, P := 6984000000
Android activations, A := 2000000
iOS activations, I := 4000000
C := A + I = 6000000

TA := A / P = 2000000 / 6984000000
            = 0.000286368843069873997709049255441008

TC := C / P = 6000000 / 6984000000
            = 0.000859106529209621993127147766323024



Openmoko units sold², O := ~3000 + ~15000 = 18000
Group tour subscriptions, S := 56

TO := S / O = 56 / 18000
            = 0.003111111111111111111111111111111111



It seems to me that the necessity of using a GTA04 motherboard in an
existing GTA01/02 phone is what is severely limiting the absolute number
of sales.  The market is minuscule compared to other devices.  I would
humbly suggest that the only solution to this problem is to sell
complete phones and so change the target market.  (Note that by complete
phones, I don't necessarily mean consumer-oriented phones.  It seems to
me that the market for complete phones needing hacking is still much
larger than the market for GTA04 motherboards alone.)

It sounds like you are already on the road to producing new cases, which
is excellent.  I would suggest also working on a modification to the
GTA04A4 design to accommodate case components that can readily replace
the GTA01/02 case components.  While I'm at it, I have wondered, how big
a deal is it to produce the same circuitry in a different sized PCB?
Like, for example, a PCB sized to fit in a case that can be 3D
printed? :-)


That said, there is still a month and a bit left of the group tour and
we haven't even had New Year's Eve yet (or the recovery from it :-)
Plenty of people have said they would be entering into the group tour
after the holidays.  Patience is a virtue :-)  Still, making the group
tour longer by extending the deadline a little might be a good idea.


Bob


¹ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population
² http://lists.goldelico.com/pipermail/gta04-owner/2011-December/000856.html