[Gta04-owner] vouchers

[Boudewijn]

On Wednesday 14 December 2011 23:00:33 xdrudis wrote:
> On Wed, Dec 14, 2011 at 02:41:29PM +0100, Xavi Drudis Ferran wrote:
> > On Wed 14/12/11 09:53 , Ed Kapitein <ed at kapitein.org> wrote:
> > > - over 2000 people buy a voucher.
> > > Production can start and people can buy GTAs and redeem their vouchers.
> > > if all devices are sold, the people with still vallid vouchers can get
> > > there
> > > money back.
> > 
> > Just how many units are produced ?
> > 
> > Let's say we need 500 EUR for a group tour
> > gta04 (as it was before vouches, and from memory, I don't remember the
> > exact number).
> > 
> > So 2000 vouches bring 200 000 EUR, and Golden Delicious can produce
> > 400 GTA04s (plus as many as group tour subscriptions). Maybe I fail
> > to understand the structure of costs here, but I haven't understood what
> > in the voucher scheme can lower the costs.

The voucher scheme would not lower cost per se, but it would increase GD's 
liquidity, and might allow a bit more aggressive ordering as a side effect.

> [...]
> 
> > What if 500 of the 2000 people who have a voucher want a GTA04 ?
> > Will 100 lose they voucher for lack of units ? Which 100 ?
> > Will more units be produced ? With what money ?
> > Will they have to wait for more people to vouch more ?
> > If so the story repeats itself later...
> 
> Just to be clear. When Golden Delicius sells the first 400 GTA04s to
> voucher holders they get 400*400 EUR = 160 000 EUR. With these they
> can build 320 GTA04, so they can sell the other 100. The only problem
> is that maybe they can't build these 320 (the quantity limit for the
> group tour is 350, presumably because when building 320, the cost
> would be over 500 per unit).
But they already got the first 100 euro, so per unit produced the revenue is 
still 500 (in this example).

> What I mean is that at a certain point Golden Delicious runs out of
> money or needs people to pay more upfront. 
I hope not: with or without voucher, each produced unit would be sold at or 
above break even. From my understanding, Eds intention was to lower the 
treshold for would-be GTA04-owners by breaking the investment into smaller 
pieces. 

> And you don't know how many
> of the voucher holders will choose to lose their money instead of
> paying 400 EUR more for a GTA04. It can work if 4 out of 5 voucher
> holders (or more) let them expire without buying (because then
> they're just lending 100 EUR each to the voucher holder that buys
> allowing them to be payed back to Golden Delicious instead of to
> themselves).
From the start it should not be seen as some kind of Ponzi scheme of sorts. As 
I read the proposal, there's still the same requirements for early birds, 
group offers etcetera. There would just be an extra option for those who can 
not afford to sponsor GTA04 with 100 euro as a gift. The voucher still gives 
GD cash flow, and a glimpse of a promise of future sales.

The second point Ed touches, is that if enough people buy the voucher, the 
"after-FOSDEM-run" can take place no matter what, because enough capital is 
raised for a production run of the minimum required number of units to make it 
possible to sell them at the advertised (lower) price.

Anyone redeeming their voucher later on, still has to get in queue for the 
next batch, and will have a (their) 100 euro reduction on their bill. As long 
as each run breaks even, there's no need to hope for people not redeeming 
their voucher (quite the opposite, the more Phoenuxes are resurrected, the 
better ;-) 

There might be some limit: in the Netherlands you're only allowed so much 
money in custody, before you have to get a bank license. This would limit the 
number of vouchers available in the lower tens of thousands, but in Germany 
there might be another limit ;-)

Boudewijn

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