[Gta04-owner] Invitation to indicate interest in next batch of GTA04A5 boards
openmoko at maricon.de
Sat May 18 16:46:12 CEST 2013
>> What we could do is have a special offer at the next Fosdem. If
>> _everyone_ (thousands of people...) (or 90% of the people there)
>> pledges an $x amount of money, they will get a Free (as-in-speech)
>> phone. That way, you can probably cut down the production cost to a
>> 'reasonable' amount (300-250 EUR apiece?). If there's not enough
>> interest, nobody loses money, but if there is, the cost per phone is a
>> lot lower than in a batch of 200-300 phones.
> Yes, sure. I think there are 5000 participants every year and 90% would
> likely allow to reduce the price to 300 EUR most likely including an injection
> moulded case.
taking into consideration all facts and arguments from this list, I come
to the following personal market analysis:
Sold GTA01/GTA02: approx. 18k
Percentage of those, who have been frustrated by them so much, that they
will never again buy an expensive phone, that in fact is of prototype
state: at least 70%
Percentage of those of the rest 30% or less, who are willing to get an
upgraded phone with more power, more features and more reliability by
the cost of forgetting the idea of having a really free and open modem:
Take 300 sold GTA04 as basis of assumption and come to the result: 5%.
I claim that's realistic.
Now estimate possible sales rate of GTA05. Take two variants:
a) GTA05 that is based on GTA04, but with OMAP5, DVB-T, external
accessible interfaces like I2C, perhaps also another display, but again
with closed source modem: Less than 100.
b) GTA05 that is mostly the same as GTA04. Only improvement is to have
an open source LTE modem (hardware and firmware): Approx. 2k or 3k.
Both variants already include the assumption that GTA05 also has a
better soldered MMCX connector.
So I assume that it's clear that within ordinary capitalistic ways of
thinking we'll never get any GTA05. But before making more thoughts, I'm
asking you to comments to these statements.
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