[Gta04-owner] Invitation to indicate interest in next batch of GTA04A5 boards

Sven openmoko at maricon.de
Sat May 18 16:46:12 CEST 2013


Hello,

>> What we could do is have a special offer at the next Fosdem. If
>> _everyone_ (thousands of people...) (or 90% of the people there)
>> pledges an $x amount of money, they will get a Free (as-in-speech)
>> phone. That way, you can probably cut down the production cost to a
>> 'reasonable' amount (300-250 EUR apiece?). If there's not enough
>> interest, nobody loses money, but if there is, the cost per phone is a
>> lot lower than in a batch of 200-300 phones.
> Yes, sure. I think there are 5000 participants every year and 90% would
> likely allow to reduce the price to 300 EUR most likely including an injection
> moulded case.

taking into consideration all facts and arguments from this list, I come 
to the following personal market analysis:

Sold GTA01/GTA02: approx. 18k

Percentage of those, who have been frustrated by them so much, that they 
will never again buy an expensive phone, that in fact is of prototype 
state: at least 70%

Percentage of those of the rest 30% or less, who are willing to get an 
upgraded phone with more power, more features and more reliability by 
the cost of forgetting the idea of having a really free and open modem: 
Take 300 sold GTA04 as basis of assumption and come to the result: 5%.

I claim that's realistic.

Now estimate possible sales rate of GTA05. Take two variants:

a) GTA05 that is based on GTA04, but with OMAP5, DVB-T, external 
accessible interfaces like I2C, perhaps also another display, but again 
with closed source modem: Less than 100.

b) GTA05 that is mostly the same as GTA04. Only improvement is to have 
an open source LTE modem (hardware and firmware): Approx. 2k or 3k.

Both variants already include the assumption that GTA05 also has a 
better soldered MMCX connector.

So I assume that it's clear that within ordinary capitalistic ways of 
thinking we'll never get any GTA05. But before making more thoughts, I'm 
asking you to comments to these statements.

Best regards
    Sven



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