[Gta04-owner] GTA04 Group Buy - Status

[Xavi Drudis Ferran]

On Thu 01/12/11 16:49 , Dr.H.Nikolaus Schaller <hns at goldelico.com> wrote:

> But we have so far just 6% of the minimum quantity that is
> required to keep the price as indicated. I.e. we should already
> have triple as many orders if we assume linear growth.
>

Why assume linear growth ?

The incentive to subscribe early is the 10 % rebate for the first 50 
and 5%  for the other 50 . Is there any other ? Will late comers  be left without
their product if there are too many ? 

The incentive to subscribe late is the small interest on the money while 
you keep it (you pay at the moment of subscribing and get it back
in Februrary if not enough people subscribe, right?), the possibility 
of earning/saving more money meanwhile (like Christmas money 
as already hinted), the risk of needing the money for something else 
before the deadline (final deadline, or the moment the indicator gets 
to 50/350 or 100/350), and the additional information  
on subcription itself (chance of losing money transfer costs if 
there aren't enough subscribers in the end) and on the progress on 
any issue or tests to help decision making. 

So maybe the growth to be expected is in 3 steps, relatively flat until the 
first 30 or so are sold, then fast growing to 50 (people rushing to 
get the 10% rebate) , then flat again to say 80,
then fast till 100 (rushing to 5% rebate) and then flat until nearly 
start of February. 

It looks like hiding the indicator would be a  good way of having 
people more motivated to subscribe early, since they could not
know whether the incentive point was near or far. But maybe hiding
information is against some principles (I don't think so, financial
information is not that relevant, and the only interest is the chance 
of finally getting the product or having to take the money back with 
possible marginal money transfer cost loss). 

Then again hiding the indicator would only have an effect on when 
the subscriptions happen, not on how many happen finally, and 
therefore may not be worth it, I don't know. 

And of course people don't have to be rational and play like this or
may have other reasons. People are not rational when things at
stake are not worth so much to them. ... mmm ... Ok, people are 
not rational. Full stop.

I just mean that I wouldn't worry much about the amount of subscriptions
until the deadline comes. Surely not between the 100 and 350 marks.

> Unfortunately, one thing is clear: if the 350 are not reached
> in time, there won't be a mass market priced GTA04. Just
> the more expensive variant "from stock" will remain :(
> 

Good. Keeping the conditions stable is a good idea. 

> And it will be very unlikely that there will be any offer for a
> "next chance". We can expect a new subscription offer (and
> reduced price for the "from stock" units) only if this one
> becomes successful. And thinking about extending
> the subscription timeframe also won't help.
>

Ditto. I think you can't measure success yet. 
 
> 
> There have been distributed approx. 15k GTA02 units
> and 3k GTA01 units in total. So if we can convince 10% of
> the owners for a GTA04 upgrade, we have 1800. And if we
> just get 2% we have the 350 units.
>

Good. 
 
> And, the total smartphone market worldwide is predicted
> to be 400 million devices in 2012. So we should be able
> to convince 1 person in 1 million!
>

I think it's harder to convice 1 person in 1 million to buy a 
smartphone motherboard that they can look at with awe, 
than  convincing 1 in 50 to buy a motherboard that they can put (or have put)
in their smartphone to further enjoy it. 

The target (for the subscriptions) is GTA02 or GTA01 owners right now, not the world,
not smartphone buyers, not GNU/linux users.  

> So I think it is possible.
> 

Yes. 

> Now, what can we all do to improve the chances of a second
> birth of a mass market Openmoko?
> 
> I think we need to heavily increase the awareness about
> the GTA04 in the Linux communities! There have been no
> reports in the usual new channels of the announcement
> that the GTA04 is now ready to be ordered. At least I have
> not seen them.
> 

I'd say this is good, but may relatively waste effort, since the 
linux communities are much bigger than the target audience. 
Most of the audience will just try to buy the few stock models available with
case or feel they wish they had a GTA02 to be able to upgrade.

Are there places the GTA owners are likely to see ? Yes, I know
they don't go to iTunes, and I know that when people is free
to do what they want with their phones they can't be expected 
to do all the same. But are there a few places people go ? 
Distribution websites, maybe ? Could some popular applications
display an ad (buff, sounds somehow nasty). The openmoko.org site already
has some links, I think. 

> And, if I read this:
> 
> http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/11/30/smartphone_spying_app/
> 
> it is obvious why the open and free software community needs
> a device where every individual has control over the software.
>

Yes, I wish I could help finishing the liberation of libertas, but 
I don't have the skills or time. I am very grateful to you people 
for getting this very far. 
 
> Some ideas:
> 
> • we convince our friends to upgrade their GTA01/02 as well
> (on orders of 5 units or more, there will be an additional
> rebate).
>

Good. 
 
> * become a local reseller.
>

If you have GTA02 cases in stock, you mean ? 
Or just a reseller of the motherboards ?
Maybe people could gather in some wiki and group by 
location so that they can group buy or that resellers 
can organise trips to places there's demand ? 
I don't know. 
 
> * contact your old friends from the intense discussions on
> the openmoko community-list. I think only a percentage (10%?)
> of the previous subscribers are still subscribed. So they may
> not even be aware about this new developments.
> 

Yes, this is more focused than contacting the general linux audience. 
Yet it misses the possibly many lurkers. 

> • we can talk about the GTA04 in general and this offer in our favorite
> blogs, forums, twitters, facebooks, mailing lists, conferences
>
> * we notify magazines like slashdot.org or linuxfordevices.com
> 

Everything helps, but again only people with a GTA02 will subscribe.

> • add an  link to the Filling Level image and/or link
> the group tour order page from home pages, blogs, project
> pages etc. 

I'd say better the group order tour.
 
> 
> * help to provide complete devices:
> - design and build your own cases (3D printing, wooden)

This would be great. It's more work but more benefit, since it
widens the target audience to the whole world (in the best case). 

Or even (it must be difficult/impossible) 
help put the GTA04 board in existing, non GTA02  cases. It doesn't need to 
be a phone, if a square bigger box is easier to design it 
can still be useful, maybe people want to user a small computer
in a car, and want compass, GPS, FM, hands free calls, 
or replace their GPS device with something that they can use
to place calls too and can program (with a bluetooth handset or something). 
Or maybe some sort of connector kit can help use it in robots, 
or I don't know. Or adapting it to the milkymist box could enable
people to use it for experimenting.

I wouldn't mind having a GTA04 inside an openpandora or 
nanonote so that I don't have to carry both. Or inside some
ebook reader.

And if it looks it's too much money to pay for a board that is 
designed as a phone, think that the same case/adaptation should be useful
to recycle your old GTA02, so that would increse demand for GTA04, 
since people could use their GTA04 in their phone and their old 
GTA02 in some other device. 

But this must be between impossible and very difficult, so maybe
we can't expect it to happen.

> - or look at e.g. eBay for used/defective GTA01/GTA02
> devices and offer an upgrade service.
> 

Or just advertise the willingness to buy old freerunners, yes. 

If somebody would want to put the capital to buy cases / used 
GTA02 that could be advertised together with the GTA04 offer, 
so that GTA02 users who no are no longer interested may be interested
in selling it and those interested may be interested in upgrading it.

But it means money upfront. Maybe just setting up some hub 
to connect people willing to buy old GTA02s with those willing to
sell them ? But there are already general sites people can use (ebay, whatever), 
I guess...

> If you have additional ideas, please share!
> 
I don't think mine are very useful, since I have no idea on electronics or
marketing, just sent them because you asked. 

Good luck, you deserve it.